Kendrick Lamar's Mr. Moral & The Big Steppers will probably have the biggest first-week opening of the year.

But it's going to be really close.

HitsDailyDouble has Kendrick's fifth album posting 286,373 SPS in its first week.  That's down from the 350K initial prediction and the 325K mid-week projection.

It should just nip the 286,015 Bad Bunny put up last week for the year's biggest opening frame, but it could go the other way if Billboard has slightly different totals. 

This is a significant drop from the 603K Kendrick's last album DAMN. did five years ago, despite Mr. Moral & The Big Steppers being a double album with four extra songs to stream.

What do you think caused Mr. Moral & The Big Steppers to lose momentum as it did?